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第2号
村田 光二、高木 彩、高田 雅美、藤島 喜嗣 Koji Murata, Aya Takagi, Masami Takada, Yoshitsugu Fujishima計画錯誤の現場研究 ——活動の過大視、障害想像の効果、時間厳守性との関係——
Empirical Studies of the Planning Fallacy: Overestimated Activity, Imagined Obstacles, and a Relationship to Punctuality
2007年03月 発行
[ 要旨 ]
この論文には日本語要旨はありません
[ Abstract ]
Through two empirical studies, this study examines the planning fallacy which results in a delay of carrying out a certain challenge that had not been initially predicted. The first empirical study proved that the phenomenon of the planning fallacy occurred even though the actual amount of activity was overestimated initially. Students who participated in this study overestimated the number of times they would have to attend the following week’s lecture and the amount of expenses they would have to spend on food and drinks. The second empirical study examined the conditions to decrease the planning fallacy and individual differences in punctuality by assigning written class reports to students. Students who participated in this study were asked to answer a survey that estimated the date of completing the report at the time the homework was assigned, and another survey that asked the date that the student had finished the report after submission. As a result, not only did the study demonstrate that students had a more optimistic prediction of when they would finish the report, but also the planning fallacy was recognized in terms of the students overestimating the amount of time it would take to write the report relative to the amount of time it actually took. However, compared to the control condition, the planning fallacy did not decrease under the condition of having students imagine obstacles in the future at the time of the prediction, nor under the condition of having them bring back memories of experiences from the past. Moreover, the study also demonstrated that students who were more punctual showed a bigger planning fallacy toward the assignment than those who were less punctual. Students who were punctual predicted that they would finish at an earlier date, however, in reality these students finished their reports at around the same time as those who were less punctual, or just before the due date. The results of the study were discussed in terms of the robustness of the planning fallacy.